CLIMATE NEWS MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF FINE WINE, STUDY SHOWS.

Climate headlines may be rippling through more than just weather forecasts; they’re also influencing what buyers are willing to pay for luxury wine.

A new study from the University of Auckland finance academic, Dr Gertjan Verdickt, shows that spikes in climate-related news can reduce how much people are willing to spend on a bottle of French fine wine.

“I ask the question, if you see more climate-related news, are you willing to pay more or less for foreign wine? And my analysis shows it's less," Verdickt says.

"The economic magnitude is meaningful: a one-standard-deviation increase in climate attention is associated with a 3.58 per cent drop in the price of a bottle."

In practice, that means a US$480 Bordeaux could fall by around US$17 when climate concerns make headlines.

CLIMATE EXTRAPOLATION

Verdickt describes the trend as “climate extrapolation” — when investors project local climate worries onto assets in other regions, even if those assets aren’t directly affected.

“I compare the price of these wines abroad relative to their price in France; I used France as my benchmark. In theory, the ratio should be one, meaning a bottle costs the same abroad as it does in France. When that ratio changes, I look to understand why.”

The effect is most potent in the summer months, when climate change feels most immediate and cannot be explained away by other factors, such as natural disasters, investor mood, or bottle condition.

BIG DATA, FINE WINES

To reach his conclusion, Verdickt analysed more than 70,000 auction transactions covering Bordeaux Premier Cru wines, Haut-Brion, Lafite Rothschild, Latour, Margaux and Mouton Rothschild.

Bottles from these producers typically cost around US$480 and are frequently traded as ‘investment-grade’ wines.

“This is not the kind of wine you casually open on a weeknight, at least … I don't. At the same time, these wines are frequently traded, which makes them a good product for analysis,” Verdickt says.

BEYOND THE CELLAR

The dataset drew on sales from 222 auction houses across 18 countries, including Australia and New Zealand, and cross-referenced them with climate news trends.

To measure awareness, Verdickt used a Climate Attention Index, created from more than 23 million tweets by major newspapers worldwide.

The findings, he argues, underline how climate perceptions shape investor behaviour far beyond the vineyard.

“A growing body of research shows that personal experiences influence financial decision-making, and climate news and events are no exception,” he says.

The study also reinforces evidence that climate concerns don’t just affect consumer spending, but ripple into corporate voting and broader financial decisions.